@PhDThesis{Lyra:2015:EsVuBi,
author = "Lyra, Andr{\'e} de Arruda",
title = "Estudo de vulnerabilidade do bioma Amaz{\^o}nia aos cen{\'a}rios
de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2015",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2015-08-28",
keywords = "mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica, modelagem regional,
vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o din{\^a}mica, climate change, regional
climate model, dynamic vegetation model.",
abstract = "Os cen{\'a}rios do IPCC indicam, nas pr{\'o}ximas d{\'e}cadas,
fortes modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es no meio ambiente global, em
virtude do aumento da concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o atmosf{\'e}rica de
CO\$_{2}\$ e outros gases de efeito estufa advindos de
atividades antr{\'o}picas. Apesar da redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na taxa
de desmatamento nos {\'u}ltimos anos, espera-se que o impacto do
aquecimento global por si s{\'o} possa gerar importantes
modifica{\c{c}}{\~o}es na composi{\c{c}}{\~a}o, estrutura e
distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos ecossistemas pelo planeta. Os modelos
de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o din{\^a}mica permitem representar as
mudan{\c{c}}as na distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de
vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o bem como nos processos
biogeoqu{\'{\i}}micos diante de mudan{\c{c}}as no clima. O
objetivo desse estudo foi investigar as poss{\'{\i}}veis
mudan{\c{c}}as no bioma Amaz{\^o}nia resultante de dois
cen{\'a}rios de mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas: RCP4.5 e RCP8.5.
Para isso, os modelos atmosf{\'e}rico Eta e de biosfera InLand
foram acoplados assincronamente para avaliar as
retroalimenta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de longo prazo entre os biomas
Amaz{\^o}nia e o clima. Com isso verificou-se os potenciais
impactos gerados pela mudan{\c{c}}a clim{\'a}tica regional nas
propriedades do bioma Amaz{\^o}nia, como LAI e NPP, e na
distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cobertura vegetal. As
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es mostraram que algumas {\'a}reas de floresta
tropical na Amaz{\^o}nia foram substitu{\'{\i}}das por
coberturas de vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o do tipo floresta
dec{\'{\i}}dua e pastagem no cen{\'a}rio RCP4.5 e apenas por
pastagem no cen{\'a}rio RCP8.5 no final deste s{\'e}culo. O
modelo indica uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cerca de 9\% da
{\'a}rea de floresta tropical no cen{\'a}rio RCP4.5 e uma
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o ainda maior no cen{\'a}rio RCP8.5 de cerca de
50\% na regi{\~a}o leste da Amaz{\^o}nia. Embora o aumento da
concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de CO\$_{2}\$ atmosf{\'e}rico possa
favorecer o crescimento das {\'a}rvores, as proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
de Eta-HadGEM2-ES mostraram aumento de temperatura e
redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na regi{\~a}o
amaz{\^o}nica, o que causou a degrada{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal
nestas simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es. As mudan{\c{c}}as no LAI e na NPP
projetadas pelo modelo InLand indicam uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o na
quantidade de CO\$_{2}\$ absorvida pela vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o na
parte leste e sul da regi{\~a}o norte do Brasil. ABSTRACT: The
IPCC scenarios indicate, in the coming decades, strong changes in
the global environment, given the increased atmospheric
concentration of CO\$_{2}\$ and other greenhouse gases arising
from human activities. Despite the reduction in deforestation rate
in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause
changes in the composition, structure and distribution of
ecosystems across the planet. Thus, the interactions between
climate and vegetation must be well understood in studies of
climate change. The dynamic vegetation models seek to represent
changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical
processes in the face of climate change. The objective of this
work was to investigate the possible changes on the major
Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under two climate change
scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An asynchronous coupling between Eta
model and InLand dynamic vegetation model was applied to examine
the likely consequences of simulated impacts of regional climate
change on vegetation properties such as LAI and NPP and vegetation
distribution in terms of major vegetation types. The projections
show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are
replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario
and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this
century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9\% in
the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further
reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50\% in the eastern
region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO\$_{2}\$
atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the
projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and
reduction of rainfall in Amazon region, which caused the forest
degradation in these simulations. Changes in LAI and NPP designed
by Inland model indicate a reduction in the amount of CO\$_{2}\$
absorbed by vegetation in the eastern and southern part of the
northern region of Brazil.",
committee = "Rodriguez, Daniel Andr{\'e}s (presidente) and Chan, Chou Sin
(orientador) and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de (orientador) and
Candido, Luiz Antonio and Correia, Francis Wagner Silva",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "A vulnerability study of Amazon biome to climate projections",
language = "pt",
pages = "181",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3K3ATEL",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3K3ATEL",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}